Security in the news — Aftermath of Flight MH17

Downing of flight MH17


The downing of Malaysia flight MH17 is an unprecedented attack on commercial aviation. I posted news report on tweeter as soon as the news broke, but waited to write about until there was at the very least some intelligent assessment of exactly what happened. The threat of a surface-to-air missile used by terrorist to target a commercial jetliner is not an unthinkable scenario that has not been consider my risk analyst before. In fact over the last 50 years there have been many other similar incidents which have occurred over conflict zones around the world. I can also recall at least one scenario which worried intelligence authorities related to terrorist groups intent on acquiring missile technology for such a gruesome plan during the aftermath of the 9-11 terrorist attacks on US soil. But in recent times the thought that a sophisticated weapons system, under the control of a State, should be put in the  hands of irregular actors would appear improbable and outside of all rules of engagement. That the same antiaircraft system should be trained on a passenger jetliner would be inconceivable; not any more. One thing appears clear, whether this was the result of a terrible accident or intentional action, the parties responsible should be severely punished as to discourage the indiscriminate use of such weapons in any armed conflict.

Shot Down Plane in history

Some news media have attempted to lay fault on the airlines for flying over a popular air route which for months has been an increasingly escalating conflict zone. In fact, some airlines had made the risk calculus and opted to fly around Eastern Ukraine. It’s understood that after Ukrainian separatist rebels shot down Ukrainian military transport and a fighter jet using Russian made weapons just days before, some degree of caution should have been practiced by all airlines even in the absence of or limited no-fly zone. Perhaps this was a foreseeable black swan event, but the reality we were supposed to believe was that a commercial airline would be safe from such risk once a plane reaches cruising altitude above thirty two thousand feet, hence the ban on flights below that range for the Eastern part of the country. Furthermore even the current duty-of-care standards for commercial aviation fall short of accounting for such events. It’s difficult to fault an airline following the conventional wisdom, in the absence of guidelines, when you consider all these permutations.

mh17-infographic-mistaken identity

No doubt this event is a game changer, and all commercial aviation stakeholders are rewriting their ops manual to involve geopolitical risk assessments from their security and risk management departments before a final decision is made on the air route to follow. We should prepare also for the potential for travel disruptions to come in the immediate future as conflicts flare up in a G-0 world struggling to define a new order. We’ve seen evidence of this just yesterday with many airlines suspending all flights to Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion airport after reported rockets may have been aimed at the run-way following the renewed Israeli-Palestinian conflict on the Gaza Strip.

As we mourn for the victims of flight MH17, we’re also left with a sense of despair. Significant damaged has already been done to the confidence of air travelers when this terrible tragedy follows in the heels of another as yet unexplained commercial aviation accident involving Malaysia Airline flight MH370 . For a person skeptical of coincidences, is hard to come to terms with the fact that such terrible fate should revisit one single airline in a short period. Restoring confidence should be high on the list of all the stakeholders regardless of their powerful motivation to the contrary.


Getting out in time requires precision

Emergency Evac2

Companies and organizations have several options for getting employees and others out of dangerous countries such as Iraq. For instance, they can rely on their respective country governments to get their people out of areas that are experiencing a crisis. However, private evacuations are often more efficient and faster than those handled by governments. Such private evacuations can be handled by insurance companies or evacuation companies like Anvil Group. Such security firms are hired to evacuate company staff or students abroad when crisis conditions reach a crescendo. Recent crisis events include the wave of violence stemming from political instability (the so-called Arab Spring) that swept the Middle East (Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Syria, among others); the earthquake in Japan, as well as the Ukrainian and most recently the conflicts in Iraq.


Emergency Evac3

Many organizations tapped Anvil Group after their insurance providers were unable to handle the evacuation. Some evacuations have only been partially handled due to failure to properly plan for specific scenarios, considering any and all modes of transportation, access to ports, border-crossing, save havens or other critical considerations. Such situations run the risk of placing people in harm’s way, which could be mitigated if evacuees have been advised to shelter-in-place until conditions were ripe for safe transfer to their country of origin or other safe locations.  Companies like Anvil Group are paid to consider all probable scenarios and develop robust, reliable plans that can be implemented often with very short notice. Because of the unpredictable nature of crisis events, organizations are advised to develop internal plans in coordination with the crisis mitigation firm; develop drills and table-top exercises based on credible scenarios. Companies are also encouraged to dispense with template documents that collect dust on shelves and instead develop practical, living-documents, easily scalable with logical steps that can facilitate activation during the crisis.


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When Economies Decline, Social Volatility Rises

For more than two years the question of sovereign debt has been festering as major economies struggle to nurse economies back to healthy growth levels. As first there was Greece, Dubai and others. Now, the list has grown r

Now the leading economies, with their backs against the wall, have launched ever deeper austerity measures, which now threaten to open the floodgates of pent-up social anxiety of sorts. The most recent manifestations, social unrest, (In Europe and the Middle East) appear to be spreading. Although many factors are contributing to these events, the underlying factors appear to be constant. High unemployment, as well as high inflation act as accelerant, fueling highly volatile conditions.

Some obvious questions that I asked myself more and more: what happens if the current sovereign debt problems continue to spread? What impacts would these events have on the protection of people, assets and reputation for public and private industry? For the untrained in global economics it’s difficult to make sense of the wild gyrations we’re experiencing and that are only getting more complex. To the extent that only a handful of people can understand the magnitude of the global economic crisis. We’re left with a partial picture of potential scenarios over the horizon; which we must draw upon to design strategic response.  Therein lies an important takeaway, we should question all of our assumptions and create contingencies for the most likely scenarios.

More about security strategy during social unrest:


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A CSO In The Line of Fire

“This is the disheartening story of a Nigerian university’s CSO who lost his own life while responding to a distress call from the home of one of the university’s professors. When he arrived at the professor’s home, he was murdered by gunmen who were there to attack the professor (who luckily was not there).”
It is a dangerous world we live in; even the call of duty can turn into a CSO’s last call.  My condolences to the family.  May the killers be caught and pay for this heinous crime.

Read the story here:

Dispatch from ASIS International’s Seminars and Exhibit

Posting from sunny Anaheim, California this week where thousands of security practitioners have gathered for the 55th Annual ASIS International Seminar and Exhibits.  The developing trends I’ve become aware of so far are as follows: H1N1 Preparedness seems to be on everyone’s agenda as the fall wears on in North America and elsewhere in the world; global supply chain security and standards; as well as leadership succession planning at ASIS International and beyond.  These are important new development that I believe are worth following.  

I will post of any new developments at the end of the Seminars.

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The Global Illicit Economy

Here is a unique look into the world of the Global Illicit Economy.  Nils Gilman provides  a holistic view of the why and how global criminal networks exist and proliferate.  One key take away from the video is that taken together revenues from global illicit economy as an industry would beat the S&P 500 index and this tremendous growth has given way to professionalism.  The end game is for the illicit economy to supplant the real economy.


Traveler’s Scam targeting victims @ Bangkok Airport

Hello fellow travelers.  Here again to warn you about one more scheme targeting tourist at international airports.  I can’t tell to what degree there is collusion between duty free shop staff, airport authorities and police to perpetrate this malicious scam, but victim accounts made them responsible for their ordeals.  If you’re travels put you at Suvarnabhumi Airport beware of the risk to falling victim to this scam.

The report brought to my recollection a scheme I became aware of in some Latin American airports.  It consists of Customs officials passing information about the amount of money you declared on the form to criminals alone with the victim’s description.  You’re then intercepted at an opportune time on the road away from the airport. Though not declaring the amount of currency you carry would likely get you a large fine or worse, land you in jail, if caught, you are advised to take precautions and practice situational awareness.  Protect yourself by arriving during daylight; arranging private transportation from a reputable provider well in advance; ask for the name and description of the driver and then cross check with official ID upon meeting at the airport exit. You can find more travel security tips on this site.