Oil Trending Up

By Francisco Mateo, CPP, CFE

Despite the global recession oil is once again trending up.  Analysts predict that oil would continue on a steady rise.  The notion seems incredible after a witnessing a 77% tumble in the price of oil last year.  But against all odds it rises; who can tell us what magical market forces are behind the prop, as we say in Spanish “eso es harina de otro costal” or “that’s flour from another sack” hope you get my drift here.

What is logical in all of this is that such bullish predictions would impact, on the surface, the price of fuel.  That in consequence increases pressure and incentives for fuel thieves, gas retailers beware. When we drill down on the issue we realize that oil commodity prices are a leading indicator of trends in the global economy a spike in prices puts pressure on weakest link in the supply chain, transportation companies.  A rise in fuel prices adversely affects their margin.  For organized gangs, higher finished products prices mean they fetch more money on the black market. From this genesis grows the pressure to hijack more trucks carrying products with inflated prices.

The lesson here to security practitioners is that when we see movement in oil prices we should be on the lookout for collateral effect on supply chain risks.

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